Miami, L.A. Lose Population As Immigration Tightens

Miami and Los Angeles recorded the largest population losses among major US metros in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to new Census Bureau data. The broader picture is worse: the average growth rate for metro areas fell from 1.1% in 2024 to 0.6% in 2025, with nearly 8 in 10 counties that grew between 2023 and 2024 seeing their growth slow or reverse direction in 2025.

The reversal marks a structural break. Cities that relied on immigration to offset domestic out-migration now face shrinkage as net influx of migrants to the United States decreased from a record 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. Nine out of 10 US counties had lower levels of immigration in 2025 compared to 2024.

The mechanism is straightforward. The nation’s largest counties are often international migration hubs, gaining large numbers of international migrants and losing people that move to other parts of the country via domestic migration. With fewer gains from international migration, these types of counties saw their population growth diminish or even turn into loss.

Miami’s case tells the affordability story underneath the immigration numbers. The city elected its first Democratic mayor in nearly 30 years, Eileen Higgins, with affordability concerns playing a key role. The post-pandemic remote work refuge became too expensive for the workers it attracted.

This isn’t a business cycle story. With so little natural increase, migration determines whether an area grows or declines, particularly in the big metro cores that have continuous domestic out-migration and are dependent on immigration. With US birth rates in long-term decline and deaths exceeding births in 2,055 counties, or 65% of the total, immigration was the only factor preventing widespread urban contraction.

The demographic arithmetic now runs through policy. The figures, covering one year through July 2025, reflect the initial months of President Donald Trump’s second term and the beginning of his administration’s immigration crackdown. The Census Bureau projects that its estimated net immigration of 1.3 million people for the year ending June 2025 could be reduced to levels around 321,000 in the year ending June 2026.

Growth shifted to second-tier Southern metros. Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth led metro growth in 2025, followed by Atlanta, Phoenix and Charlotte. Ocala, Florida led the nation at 3.4% growth, followed by Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. These aren’t immigration hubs: they’re affordability plays benefiting from continued domestic migration out of expensive coastal cities.

The longer-term implications compound. If immigration levels remain below average amid the ongoing decline in natural change, there will be historically low household growth and demand for new housing units in the next decade. Cities that built their tax base and infrastructure on perpetual growth now face a decade of managing decline.